(KRON) – On today’s Winners & Losers, financial expert Rob Black talks about the market slide, the rise in interest rates, and what actually may bring down the price of a tank of gasoline.
Loser: Markets slide as Post-Fed Rally Disappears
Inflation is a global problem. Most central banks are raising rates to combat inflation. Economic growth forecasts are moving quickly lower. Inflation, though, isn’t coming down fast enough — or at all yet.
The Federal Reserve raised the expected 75 basis points making the cost of servicing debt higher. More on this in a minute.
Sadly we need earnings revisions lower and then job cuts to see the markets put in a bottom.
Initial jobless claims for the week came in at 229,000. The labor market is starting to get weaker but is still strong enough to create inflation. If this trend continues, inflation should lower as people won’t be driving to work or getting their paychecks.
Housing starts and building permits declined month-over-month, meaning less supply coming, thus less inventory to help supply the market.
Mortgage rates have surged to the highest point since 2008, making home-buying significantly more unaffordable. For every 1% rise in mortgage rates, your borrowing power drops about $50,000.
Cosmetic giant Revlon is filing for bankruptcy as it is currently unable to timely fill almost one-third of customer demand for its products. Revlon is the first major consumer-facing business to file for bankruptcy protection in what has been a years-long pause of distress in the retail sector.
Loser: The Fed slams the emergency brakes
The Fed raised its benchmark interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point on Wednesday to a range of 1.5%-1.75%, which is still pretty cheap historically.
It’s the most aggressive hike since February 1994. Jerome Powell said to expect another 50 to 75 increase in July.
That would bring the Fed funds rate in the neighborhood of 2.25-3% but before the Fed is done we will should see a march to 3.8% on borrowing costs to start putting the brakes on inflation.
Jerome Powell admitted that he cannot control three of the biggest sources of inflation: Saudi Arabia (oil supply), Russia (oil supply and food supply clogged out of Ukraine) and China (low cost manufacturing, supply and distribution).
The Fed heads up monetary policy and tries to keep employment full and inflation between 2-4% while Congress steers the US fiscal policy.
Record-low cost of money is now a distant memory. Borrowers have little interest in tapping the capital markets for new financing for new businesses and refinancing debt should fade as the cheapest of money days are behind.
Loser: Gas price relief probably needs a recession
Gasoline prices remain above an average of $5 per gallon nationally with no relief in sight. California leads the nation with an average of $6.43 for a gallon of regular gas.
Record highs on gasoline will continue this summer, when demand typically peaks.
The guess on peak nationally would be near $6 a gallon so maybe $7 or $8 in California.
Gas is cheaper where there are refiners and pipelines.
Gasoline prices falling are probably not going to be due to a supply-driven solution.
Unfortunately, a recession will lead to job cuts which leads to people staying at home versus driving to work.
Come August when we travel less and go back to school we are now hoping for fewer hurricanes that can disrupt oil supply and refining in the Gulf of Mexico.