(NEXSTAR) – Between high prices and high interest rates, there hasn’t been much good news for would-be homebuyers lately. But new data from CoreLogic, a financial analytics company that tracks real estate markets around the country, has a glimmer of hope for those looking to buy in California.
Real estate has been red-hot the past year. CoreLogic found in its most recent analysis that prices jumped more than 18% nationwide from June 2021 to June 2022. And some states saw prices go up by even more — Tennessee saw an increase of 25.8%, and Florida saw whopping 31.8% year-over-year price growth.
California didn’t see prices go up by margins as large as Florida or Tennessee, but prices here are already much higher. The median home price in California is around $788,000, according to Zillow.
CoreLogic expects a much cooler year ahead, forecasting prices around the country to go up about 4% by June of next year.
“Though annual appreciation was still strong, it slowed from the previous month for the second consecutive month, reflecting reduced buyer demand in part due to higher mortgage rates and worries about a slowing economy,” the report reads.
In some areas, the analysts are actually expecting prices to fall. In California, CoreLogic told Nexstar the below 10 metro areas are most likely to see price drops over the next year. (The list is ranked with the highest risk of price drops at the top — not necessarily the largest drops.)
- San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco
- Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade
- Visalia-Porterville
- Yuba City
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara
- Fresno
- Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley
- Madera
- Hanford-Corcoran
- Vallejo-Fairfield
The Bay Area has several cities that appear among the top 10, with the Peninsula region ranking highest, following by Silicon Valley cities, the East Bay and Solano County.
After San Francisco, the second-most likely area to see home prices drop is the Sacramento metro area.
The San Joaquin Valley communities around Visalia and Porterville may also see prices drop, CoreLogic says.
Notably missing from the list are the Los Angeles and San Diego areas. Both areas saw some of the biggest home price appreciation among large cities between 2021 and 2022. Home prices went up about 15% between June 2021 and June 2022, according to CoreLogic. Meanwhile, San Diego’s prices jumped 20.9%.
